24/06/2011 – Friday - 27/06/2011 - Monday
Market Rise by almost 4%, where at starting of week it is to be very gloomy day and market was testing its previous yly low, suddenly on Friday it changed its direction and moved up very sharply. On Thursday it close on minor positive note and it was petty clear that on Friday it will have positive opening, and it did nifty opened some 20 point gap up and then form there it continued to rise rise and rise only, having some minor correction in day but trend held very strong entire day with closing at day’s high.
Oil specially PSU Oil and Oil Mkting cos was very strong through the day and it held up till the close roughly having gain of 3% to 6% between them, later on Friday late evening govt decided to increase diesel, kerosene & LPG price by 3, 2 & 50. And also cut duty on Oil and its product which latter on Monday given other push in its price of almost 4% to 6% and rise in Nifty to 1%. ONGC touch 298 from low of 255 on Monday 20-June-11 and Nifty touch 5553 form low of 5196 which it made on news of revision of tax treat with Mauritius. But nothing much happens later on that, that week.
Analysis in Hindsight:
Govt unnecessarily floated such news of tax treaty, and market caught up in heavy selling on Monday, no doubt later it recovered, but close much below its support level of 5370, in coming four day noting much happen but market did not breach low it maintain its slow up movement of 20 point a day and on Thursday it give some positive indication that on Friday if everything goes right then it can touch 5370 level. But surprise it went much ahead of it and close 5471. On Monday it touches high of 5553 and close at 5527. Now it very clear for price data of Nifty and Oil Cos that govt and some group of people was knowing about Oil prise revision much in advance almost from Monday starting of week, which along with Govt played a tax news game and got advantage of Low buying in Oil companies, which are all up at least by 10%. As our market is growing, participants are increasing in Equity market by direct route or indirect route, and more financial product is coming, and new big player are taking part in this game it seems that Govt too with some group of people play dirty game to Price speculation. Even one of the minister declared on Friday market hour that he don’t thing govt going to decided on price rise in oil product. Why did he said such, and even after delivering such statement Oil cos does not drop, but continue to move upward, that means that there was very heavy speculation, and if my point of view is true looking to the entire drama and price movement of Oil scripts. In coming days market will correct and the group how have created long with unwind its position, surely it will not happen tomorrow but they might have started selling the stock after this run up and in coming couple of days price movement of Oil cos will give its clear indication, of such speculative play was there or not !
Just for matter of disclosure, I was long on Oil PSU companies since my previous post on It and I am still holding it.
& there might be some spell error request you to excuse me for that :)
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