4500 Decisive Drive…

If Tomorrow Nifty can drive above 4500 and stay above it at closing then, definitely Bears will feel fear. On other had if its unable to cross over and drive down, I think Bulls have to be cautious. Market is equally weight currently and has equal chance of moving on either side. Liquidity and Sentiments are two reasons for Cheers in Bulls Champ.

I would recommend to hold on long position with Strict Stop Loss and if Market revise then one should participate in down fally. Bear please keep 4500 as SSL (Strict Stop Loss) and Bulls you too if it fall back from higher level. Market is very much in overbought Zone, Monthly & Weekly Technical’s are also nearing to over bought zone. At this moment Craziness and liquidity driving market higher, how much it can go up (frankly I don’t know) but if it revise, for sure it will be good Short Term Opportunity to earn Money on Short.

Long Term Opportunity View

Most of our Local Economy data are on revival, even US data (that’s what Newspaper and News Agency Say, now how much truth is there? Its billon dollar question), but then too what is now visible at ground level, over here in India, its promising and indicate better tomorrow. India Holds very Great Long Term Value, and I believe person how believe same will utilize this volatility for accumulating Equity and other promising Asset Class for Delightful return over 10 – 15 yrs. A simple advice of Long Term Buy and Hold Investor is to get into Good Managed Diversified – Multi Cap India Equity Funds. I would not give any tip for long term Equity Stock for a simple reason that nobody knows in India when promoter will change company focus or exit from his company or merge it for his own sake or fraud comes out. For Layman this market is very risky in any time horizon, and any Stock is risky if he or she doesn’t understand market and equity dynamics. And for this simple reason skills and expertise of Managed Funds comes handy for passive Investors. “Please only get into scheme which is old over 10 yrs.”

To Share Knowledge on Managed Funds, We will be Coming Soon with New dedicated website on MF.

Last but not Least

A Scrap from Chat with Ramesh Damani – Active Trader, Investor and Member BSE.

HELLO sir...i am a b.tech....started investing and trading 6months after doing a temporary job...my work includes a lot of research in stock...levels for the day and news...whatz ur view on stock market trading for youngsters like me
Ramesh Damani: it is a very tough job. Bring passion and dedication to it

Short Covering or Fresh Buying...?

Well Nothing much to say, Same Para of yesterday I can rewrite here. Wait for one more day we will be out with next month trading strategy… Till then watch salsa of Market…

4300 4400 & 4500 are Hurdles!! !

Nice Pull back!!! Market is moving in range of 4100 to 4300 from last couple of days. Its broader range is consisting of 4100 to 4500. Tomorrow being an Expiry day we accept market to be volatile. Person carrying Long Till date should roll over there position with downside hedge and same advice I would give to Short Seller how have initiated short in recent week, roll over your position with upside hedge. If you want to build new position then I would say opportunities are on both side and odds are favoring bulls as of now, but tide can turn any time!

More recommendation on Next Month Strategy will be out by this Weekend. Till then let me watch salsa of Liquidity, Speculation and Ignorance :)

Once Again Flat Close

Once again Main Market closes flat. Can anybody over here tell me where it’s heading? I believe its stand still, waiting for sprint on either side, probably on down side, may be before F&O expiry or probably after that. For Bulls SL @ 4150, for Bear SL @ 4335, 4500.

4275 & 4150 Two Important Levels on NIFTY

Yesterday after 12 there was sharp recovery which made nifty closes in green, and made look like bulls are in control, are they really ? I would say no, currently sideline money is flowing in market at every dip, liquidity and sentiments both are supporting price and helping bulls form hitting there reversal point which I think is some where @ 4150 to 4000.

Currently as Market is trading over its 200 Day Moving Average + Strong Political Setup is made + India is developing country and lot many things to be made. This all things are appealing for long term opportunity in India Equity Market. Fundamental is running high right now and if this rally is stretched more upward then surely we will see Euphoria 2, fall there after. Any figure above 15000 on Sensex is fairly expensive for this Quarter, and any thing above 18k will be expensive for coming two quarter or at least for coming one quarter.

In short term 13275 on BSE will act as good support; breaking form this level will take sensex down back to sub 12K territory. Currently it would be very risky to have open position on either side with intention to carry over for next day or next week. I would strongly recommend to hedge positions in case, where anyone making profit or running into loss. Market is waiting of some direction on either side. In coming week we hope short term trend will be much clearer, then today. Please also bear in mind form Monday we are entering into F&O expiry week, avoided making big overnight position.

Decisive Friday !!! 22nd May 2009

ONGC ↑ Reliance ↓ Two heavy weight tussling on direction and so do NIFTY. Today’s Fall are supported by many other stock like L&T, ICICI, AUTOs, HDFC, which all was heavy gainer in recent shoot-up rally. Still chances are there that they can go further down, but eventually they should find support @ 5 Day or 8 Day Moving Average. Nifty has support @ 4150. Monthly Chart and its Technical indicator favoring Bulls, Weekly Chart and Trends are getting weak and On Daily Charts & its Technical’s favors Bears. To take advantage of this situation one can have strategy to buy on deep, but who much deep it’s a Million Rupee question!

For Investor I would say Buy on deep, Market can go down till 3600 in coming three month. For Trader Please emboss two level in mind if you are short, cut position if market starting moving up gradually over 20 mins, or cross 4325. If you are long please keep SL of 4150, as below 4200 Nifty is week. Only Hope for Bulls are revival of RIL, if it trade above 2150 then we believe market will sustain @ current level. Tomorrow ONGC might show some more strength, but in short term it’s overbought, may fall back from 1114 level. Go Short on ONGC if it’s unable to overcome 1114; even 1114 act as resistance and SL level for bear player in this Stock.

Nifty Down 1.11% Nifty Midcap 8% Up. Thats Stock Market!!!

Slowly Nifty Midcap is catching up, Still Nifty trade @ 20 PE and Nifty Midcap is trading @ 13 PE. In some days this gap will be filled, either Nifty coming down or Midcap running high. In last two days I was bearish, but looking to Individual stock chart I feel heavy weight Like Reliance Industries will give support to Nifty. You can go long in RIL tomorrow with SL 2120, or Can Short RIL below 2120 with SL 2150 on higher side. If reliance is sustaining above said level then automatically Nifty will find its support around 4200, and then can move high. But if you want to remain in better shape, than I would say “Stay away form market at least for a Day”. Calls Puts are trading @ very high premium, A/D favors bulls, Sentiments are robust, & Liquidity is ample, this all favors Bulls Very Much, but looking to recent valuation and mid-term uncertainty regarding earning, fiscal deficit and global market, Trader will be very cautious building new long position.

For Tomorrow “Stay away” ( ) If you want to carry any trade, long Reliance with Strict SL, Trader who are carrying there Short trades form last two day should keep in mind to square up if market start climbing slowly. For Trader who became long in last hour of trade today, they can hold on, till reliance is trading above 2120 and ONGC near to 1000. Exit long @ 4200.

Market Turnover over 1.5 Lac Cr. But Closing Flat…

Main indices almost close flat with Nifty have over 300 point intraday movement. Mid cap index up over 3%, A/D favors Bulls, and Volume too. One concern I see is falling of Reliance over 5%. Reliance Industries A Very Heavy Weight in NSE now also effect moment of RPL due to disclose of merger ratio. Today’s Day was saved by Banks, Capital Good & Reality and one special stock in oil and gas ONGC.

Still I will continue my view on holding Call + Put both Long. I know its very expensive but still, Bulls and Bears are tussling very hard. Bulls have upper hand, due to renewed positive sentiments, Gap Up opening + Up Circuit Closing on Monday. If we look to fundamental then noting has changed form last Friday to this Tuesday, even people who are long on there Investment as not comfortable with such sudden rise. Short term picture will be clear in couple of day, till then if you are holding naked short then it would be good to keep Stop Loss of 4450 / 4500. I would not recommend fresh new long as of now. For Intraday Trader fresh short can be initiated with said Strict SL level.

Euphoria !!! Only 170 Cr cash volume on NSE… & its up 20%. Isn’t it Strange ???

I would term today’s upside (two straight upper circuit 20%) a clear Euphoria. Definitely I agree that general sentiment has been change to positive now, which was some what subdue before election result. But it can’t be termed as end of worries which still persist in world market and in India. Concern like Fiscal Deficit, Global Liquidity (which will end soon) and Rupee appreciation (If it happens, suddenly & sharp). Let for now we forget worries and enjoy this good feel factor, and cheer for Historic Upside. (It’s happen first time in History of NSE). For Tomorrow I would say stay away from market, to all my dear Traders & Investors Friends. People who are running long, can hedge there profit by buying PUT or shorting Future. Don’t Short Sell now, wait for bear indication, today is first day of bear indication, but it should suffixes with another couple of days, before you go short. (Remember even rising market gives bear indication, and Falling market can give you bullish indication, only thing which differentiate Master from Amateur is indentifying right indication when it happen). @ Today’s close Nifty P/E stands at 19, another 10% - 15% up move will make it bit expensive, and then correction can follow. Don’t Jump to either side of market or otherwise you can be chopped in ruthless manner. Buying Call & Put simultaneously will give you Best Return going forward from now. Wish you all Prosperous Time.

Unexpected Win, Which Market Has Sense Yesterday itself !!!!

Comfortably UPA will get majority in Parliament, and Dr. Singh will be becoming PM for second term. Most of the Key portfolios will get reshuffle within the congress and its allies. So this all will affect market sentiment in shorter duration and it seems market will react positively. Coming Week look good for market where we can expect 10%-15% rally and NIFTY can touch to 3800 (might be on Monday itself) and gradually it can go up to 4150. Traders who are long can stay long and Stop Loss will be revealed on Monday, but some how market get week (which doesn’t seem as of now) then Bulls can keep SL of 3520. A/D, Volume & Other Techinacal indicators + Sentiments as of now favors bulls.

One Day To Go…

Hold on your short position, Nifty below 3500, 3200 is for sure in one week. Short position can hold on with Stop Loss 3625 and remote SL 3700. Personally I believe Monday will be like none event day for market, that what actually I feel looking to current news, views and facts scenario. But this scenario can change overnight and we can see entire different Monday. Tomorrow’s Market closing, Advance/Decline ration and Volume is reveals Many things including political breeze for coming week. Let see how Friday turns out :)

Market View After Long Gap…

Sorry viewers I was unable to update blog, due to my recent ill health, with god grace and doctors effort I have recovered well and back to work. In Gap of over week, market had moved in very volatile way and jumped over 3700 couple of times. Today last phase of election also got over and soon result will be out by Saturday evening, and then game of seats sharing will take center stage. We will see many political parties changing there mind, stands, vision, and manifesto to get benefit for themselves and this will all give market a reason to move recklessly, on either side. Currently looking to daily chart it seem till Friday market will be in range of 3500 – 3800. But on Monday we can surely see breaking of this range. So till Monday I am keeping my finger cross. Only recommendation to trader is that if you are short, hold on with stick Stop Loss above 3725, for people who are long, I would say god save you all. By the way today’s charts reveal many things!!!

Bad News Across the Globe, But no sign of worries!!! Isn’t it Strange…?

A very short last week of April ends on positive note. I believe, this momentum can continue for some more time as price volume data suggest bullish signal. Still few of other indicators like PriceROC, and MACD on daily chart are not in favor of bulls, which also do not mean they favor bears! I would hold on my short positions and would limit my loss by buying calls. So in layman language I would not advocate to buy in full capacity, nor do advice for aggressive sell off. For proficient Trader, they can build new short with upside hedge @ current level. Nifty support exits @ 3442. Again I would caution you for sharp move on either side. Trader, be vigilant!